Advanced Pick'em Strategy
Dominate your office pool with expert tactics
Go beyond basic picks with advanced strategies for underdog bonus pools, weekly predictions, and long-term success. Turn your sports knowledge into consistent wins!
Research Fundamentals
The foundation of successful pickem strategy is thorough research. Here's what you should analyze:
Team Statistics Points scored/allowed per game, yards gained/allowed, turnover differential, red zone efficiency
Recent Performance Last 5 games, home/away records, performance against similar opponents
Injury Reports Key player injuries, especially quarterbacks, running backs, and defensive stars
Weather Conditions Wind, rain, snow, and temperature can dramatically affect game outcomes
Motivation Factors Playoff implications, rivalry games, revenge games, coaching changes
Against the Spread Strategy
If your pool uses point spreads, you need to think differently than straight-up picks:
Understand the Spread A -7 spread means the favorite must win by more than 7 points to cover
Key Numbers 3, 7, and 10 are key numbers in football. Many games are decided by these margins
Public vs. Sharp Money The public often bets favorites, creating value on underdogs
Line Movement Watch how the spread changes during the week for clues about smart money
Underdog Bonus Strategy
Underdog bonus scoring is the most exciting pickem format because it requires real strategic decision-making. Here's how it works and how to master it:
How Underdog Bonus Works
• Favorites: Always give you 1 point if you pick them correctly
• Underdogs: Give you 1+ points based on the risk level (point spread)
• Risk/Reward: The bigger the underdog, the more points you get for picking them correctly
Strategic Decision Making
This format creates exciting strategic choices:
Position-Based Strategy Are you leading the pool? Play it safe with favorites. Trailing? Take risks with underdogs.
Monday Night Football Factor Save your riskiest picks for MNF when you know your position and can stage a comeback or protect a lead.
Spread Analysis Study which underdogs have the best value - sometimes a 3-point underdog is worth the risk for 1.5 points.
Timing Your Risk Early in the season? Take more risks. Late in the season with a lead? Play conservatively.
Monday Night Football Strategy
MNF is where underdog bonus strategy really shines:
Forecast Your Position Before MNF, calculate where you'll likely be in the standings. Leading by 5? Play safe. Trailing by 3? Go for broke.
Staging Comebacks If you're behind, pick the biggest underdog on MNF. A 7-point underdog might give you 2+ points for the win.
Protecting Leads If you're ahead, pick the favorite on MNF. Even if it's only 1 point, it's better than risking everything on an underdog.
The Sweet Spot Sometimes a 3-4 point underdog is perfect - enough bonus points to make a difference, but not so risky that you're likely to lose.
Advanced Analytics
Beyond basic stats, consider these advanced metrics:
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) Measures team efficiency adjusted for opponent strength
Pythagorean Expectation Predicts expected wins based on points scored and allowed
Strength of Schedule How difficult a team's opponents have been
Situational Stats How teams perform in specific situations (3rd down, red zone, etc.)
Psychological Factors
Understanding human psychology can give you an edge:
Recency Bias People overvalue recent performance. Look for teams that are better than their recent results
Public Perception Popular teams are often overvalued. Look for value in less popular teams
Contrarian Thinking When everyone is picking one team, consider the other side
Emotional Control Don't let your favorite team bias your picks. Be objective
Common Mistakes to Avoid
Picking with Your Heart Don't let your favorite team or players influence your picks
Overthinking Obvious Picks Sometimes the obvious pick is the right pick. Don't try to be too clever
Ignoring the Spread In spread-based pools, a team can win but not cover the spread
Not Checking Deadlines Make sure to submit your picks before the deadline. Late picks usually count as losses
Chasing Losses Don't make riskier picks to try to make up for previous losses
Ignoring Your Position In underdog bonus pools, always consider where you stand before making risky picks
Wasting MNF Opportunities Don't use your safest picks on MNF when you could use them earlier and save risk for the final game
Weekly Research Routine
Develop a consistent routine for analyzing games each week:
Monday-Tuesday Review previous week's results and injury reports
Wednesday-Thursday Study team statistics and recent performance trends
Friday Check weather forecasts and final injury reports
Saturday Make final picks and submit before deadline
Useful Tools and Resources
Statistical Websites ESPN, Pro Football Reference, Football Outsiders for advanced stats
Injury Reports Official team injury reports, beat writer updates
Weather Services AccuWeather, Weather.com for game-day forecasts
Expert Analysis Read multiple expert opinions to get different perspectives