SQUARES PROBABILITY
The Math Behind Which Squares Actually Win
Not all squares are created equal. Here's what the data actually shows.
We analyzed decades of NFL scoring data to find out which numbers hit - and when. Spoiler: your chances in Q1 are completely different from the Final score. Perfect party trivia for your next watch party!
Not All Squares Are Equal
Most people assume every square has the same 1% chance of winning. They're wrong.
The last digit of NFL scores follows predictable patterns based on how football is scored:
Touchdowns + PAT: 7 points (most common)
Field goals: 3 points
TDs + 2pt conversion: 8 points (rare)
Safeties: 2 points (very rare)
The Magic Numbers: 0, 7, 3, 4
Together they account for ~72% of all score digits. These are the numbers everyone hopes for at the party!
The Tough Squares: 2, 5, 8, 9
Combined, they appear less than 14% of the time. But hey - that makes the celebration even bigger when they hit!
* According to research by FanDuel analyzing 2,333 NFL games from 2015-2024
Why Quarter Matters
Here's what most people at the party don't realize: your chances of winning change dramatically depending on which quarter you're tracking.
The Q1 Phenomenon
Scores are low early in the game, so 0s dominate:
0-0 is 16% likely in Q1 (!)
0-7/7-0 is 24.2% likely
0-3/3-0 is 16.6% likely
The Final Reality
By the final score, things spread out and 0s become rare:
0-0 drops to ~1% at Final
0-7/7-0 drops to 7.3%
4 becomes much more valuable
🎯 The 0-0 square is 16x more likely to win in Q1 than at the Final score. If your party pool pays by quarter, this is huge!
* Data from PrintYourBrackets.com analysis of 59 Super Bowls
Quarter-by-Quarter Breakdown
Here are the top 5 most common combinations for each quarter:
| Rank | Q1 | Halftime | Q3 | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0-7 (24.2%) | 0-7 (11.1%) | 0-7 (8.5%) | 0-7 (7.3%) |
| 2 | 0-3 (16.6%) | 0-3 (9.8%) | 0-3 (7.1%) | 0-3 (5.7%) |
| 3 | 0-0 (16.0%) | 3-7 (8.5%) | 3-7 (5.8%) | 4-7 (5.6%) |
| 4 | 3-7 (10.6%) | 0-4 (6.7%) | 4-7 (5.6%) | 0-4 (4.6%) |
| 5 | 7-7 (7.5%) | 0-0 (6.4%) | 0-4 (5.4%) | 3-7 (4.3%) |
Notice how 0-0 goes from 3rd place in Q1 to not even making the top 5 by Final? Share this at your next watch party - people love learning which numbers to root for!
* Analysis by FanDuel Research, 2015-2024 NFL regular season data
The Best and Worst Numbers
Individual digit frequency from 59 Super Bowls:
The Winners (Good numbers)
0: 27.12% - The king. Over a quarter of all scores end in 0.
7: 18.43% - Touchdowns + PATs. Classic football.
3: 15.89% - Field goals add up.
4: 10.59% - More valuable than you'd think.
The Tough Ones (Rare numbers)
5: 2.54% - The rarest. Has appeared in a quarter's score only 12 times EVER.
2: 2.97% - Safeties are rare. Very rare.
8: 3.60% - Two-point conversions don't happen often.
9: 4.66% - Slightly better, but still tough.
* Data compiled by PrintYourBrackets.com from 59 Super Bowl games
Why This Makes Watch Parties More Fun
Want to know a secret that will make you the smartest person at the Super Bowl party?
According to analysis by Daniel Alpert on Medium, only 26 out of 100 squares are statistically "lucky" - meaning they hit more often than average. The (0,0) square is nearly 8x more likely to win than squares like (2,5) or (8,9).
But here's the thing: Squares is a game of chance - that's what makes it so fun at parties! Even the "unlucky" squares can win. Just ask anyone who's celebrated a wild 2-5 hit at a watch party.
Use this knowledge to:
- Impress your friends with your probability knowledge
- Commiserate together over your 5-8 square
- Cheer extra loud when that rare combo finally hits!
* Analysis by Daniel Alpert, "How Much is Your Super Bowl Square Worth?" on Medium
Our Solution: The 5x5 Balanced Grid
Here's something we're pretty proud of: Sportsball offers a 5x5 grid option that solves the "some squares are better than others" problem.
Instead of each square representing a single digit (0-9), our 5x5 grid pairs digits together so every player gets a mix of good AND bad numbers:
How it works:
We pair each good number (0, 7, 3, 4) with a bad number (2, 5, 8, 9), plus the middle pair (1/6):
0/5 - The best digit paired with the worst
7/2 - Touchdowns meet safeties
3/8 - Field goals meet two-point conversions
4/9 - Two solid performers
1/6 - The middle ground pair
If you have the "0/5" square, you win if EITHER digit appears - so you get the benefit of 0 (the most common digit) while also rooting for that rare 5 to show up. Every square now has roughly equal chances of winning!
Plus, 25 squares means smaller groups can play without leaving empty squares on the board. It's perfect for office pools, family gatherings, or any group where 100 squares is too many.
🎯 The 5x5 grid turns squares from "hope you get lucky with your numbers" into a truly fair game where everyone has an equal shot at winning!
Why Sportsball is the Best Choice for Squares:
- 📱 No app required to join - players join instantly via web browser with just a link. Works on any device!
- 🔔 Live scoring notifications - download our free mobile app to get alerted the moment you win at each quarter! Only Sportsball offers this.
- 🌟 Only platform with live Pro Bowl scoring - try it FREE as a warmup before the Super Bowl!
Our Sources
We didn't make these numbers up! Here's where the research comes from - all great reads if you want to go deeper before your next watch party:
FanDuel Research
Analyzed 2,333 NFL games (2015-2024) for comprehensive per-quarter breakdowns. Read the analysis →
PrintYourBrackets.com
Historical digit frequencies from all 59 Super Bowls. See the data →
SuperBowlSquares.org
Interactive probability calculator for party pools. Try the calculator →
Medium - Daniel Alpert
"How Much is Your Super Bowl Square Worth?" - heat maps and analysis. Read on Medium →
ESPN Analytics
Live in-game probability tool for following along during the game. Check it out →
What This Means For Your Watch Party
Now you know what most squares players don't. But remember - this is a party game with friends, family, and coworkers. The fun is in the shared experience and those surprise wins!
Smart tips for game day:
- If your pool pays quarterly, cheer extra hard in Q1 when 0s dominate
- If your pool only pays Final, root for those 4s to show up late
- Got a "bad" square? Embrace it! Nothing beats the celebration when a rare combo hits
- Share this knowledge at the party - it makes everyone more invested in every score change
Pick your squares, use this trivia to sound smart at the party, and enjoy watching together. That's what squares is really about - bringing people together around the game.
Perfect for:
- Super Bowl watch parties - with in-game notifications!
- Office pools and workplace competitions
- Family game day traditions
- School and nonprofit fundraisers
- Pro Bowl warmup games - FREE with live scoring!
Ready to Play Squares?
Now that you know the math, put your knowledge to the test! Sportsball is the ONLY platform with in-game push notifications for Super Bowl squares and the ONLY platform with live scoring for Pro Bowl!
Try FREE Pro Bowl squares this weekend as a warmup before Super Bowl Sunday!
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